Syllabus

Title
4534 Predicting Global Consumer Behavior
Instructors
Prof. Vincent-Wayne Mitchell, Ph.D.
Type
PI
Weekly hours
2
Language of instruction
Englisch
Registration
02/16/17 to 03/02/17
Registration via LPIS
Notes to the course
Dates
Day Date Time Room
Monday 05/22/17 10:00 AM - 01:00 PM D3.0.222
Monday 05/22/17 02:00 PM - 05:00 PM TC.3.08
Tuesday 05/23/17 10:00 AM - 01:00 PM TC.3.06
Tuesday 05/23/17 02:00 PM - 04:00 PM D4.0.127
Monday 06/19/17 10:00 AM - 01:00 PM D2.0.374
Monday 06/19/17 02:00 PM - 05:00 PM TC.3.08
Tuesday 06/20/17 10:00 AM - 01:00 PM D5.1.002
Tuesday 06/20/17 02:00 PM - 04:30 PM EA.5.040
Contents

Course Objectives

i) The course focuses on exploring central concepts of predicting future trends and how these will affect marketing practice.

ii) The course will allow students to understand different types of forecasting the future methods and how these might be used by companies.

iii) The course will assess and develop students’ individual predispositions towards tackling future uncertainties.

Learning outcomes

1. Students will learn how consumer behaviour and marketing is changing for the future.

2. Students will learn how to collect information about the future using a variety techniques.

3. Students will learn how to present material effectively in oral presentations.

Teaching/learning method(s)

The teaching method will be a combination of lecturing, seminar discussions, andquestion and answer sessions within a seminar format. In addition, students will be given tasks to do in class in pairs, as well as working in groups of four to practice their presentation skills. The teaching method will vary throughout the course to maintain student interests and attention and to reflect the intensive nature of the all-day sessions.

References.

Benedikt Krings, Jörn Küpper, Markus Schmid, and Alexander Thiel 2016‘Western Europe’s Consumer Goods Industry in 2030’ McKinsey

P Shoemaker and P Tetlock, 2016 ‘Superforecasting; how to upgrade your company’s judgement’. Harvard Business Review. P73-79

Alan Giles 2016 ‘The Future of Retailing; Personalisation’, British Brands Group.

Mitchell, V.-W., 1991, ‘The Delphi Technique: An Exposition and Application’, Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, Vol.3, No.4, pp.333-358.

Mitchell, V.-W., 1992,‘Using Delphi to Forecast in New Technology Industries’, Marketing Intelligence & Planning, Vol.10, No.2, pp.4-9, February.

Marc de Swaan Arons, Frank van den Driest, and Keith Weed 2014 ‘The Ultimate MarketingMachine’. Harvard Business Review. P 55-63

Luc Bardin, 2015 ‘Chief Value Officer’ Market Leader p30-33

Test and Learn, 2014 Harvard Business Review.

S Kavanagh and D Williams 2014 Making the best use of judgemental forecasting, Governance Finance Review, p 8-16

Assessment

The course will be assessed by:

5.1 An pecha kucha presentation in class in pairs 30%
5.2 Individual class participation 10%
5.3 Group oral presentation 10%
5.4 A group course project of 3000 words 50%

5.1 In-class Pecha Kucha in pairs

You will have to prepare the pecha kucha before the 3rd session class and simply run the powerpoint or prezzie with a pre-recorded voice over so that it can be uploaded onto youtube. Make sure the check the sound on the recording so it is loud enough. See www.pechakucha.org/. The pecha kuccha is worth 30%. The topic will be something of your choosing related to what things will change marketing in the future such as; wearable tech, biomarketing, augmented reality, artificial intelligence, programmatic marketing, google glass, oculus rift, eye tribe, parellela, robots, chatbots. Choose your topic at the end of day two and tell the Professor to avoid duplication of topics in class.

5.2 Class Participation

You should come to class well prepared, as you may be called upon to discuss issues related to the assigned cases or readings. Criteria for evaluating student class participation are noted below. You will also be asked to complete consumer behaviour questionnaires which give insights into consumer behaviour concepts discussed in class.

Criteria for Evaluating Student Class Participation
The following categories will be used to evaluate class participation:

Excellent - Outstanding substantive contribution - 10 points
Very Good - Volunteered something worthwhile/substantive - 6 points
Good - Managed to say something - 3 points
Poor - No contribution/obviously unprepared - 0 points

What is a “substantive contribution”? Meaningful participation can take several forms:

  • An example of a cultural behaviour which exemplifies the point being discussed.
  • A structuring of logic, taking some of the points raised earlier in the discussion and bringing them to a logical conclusion.
  • A reasonable alternative not previously identified.
  • A suggested plan of action or implementation.
  • A comprehensive and useful summary.

5.3 Group Project

The final project should be no more than 3,000 words and should represent a synthesis of your work on the future of marketing for a particular company you can research. The project should be written in English. The sections of the report should be. 1. Introduction and company context. 2. Explain exactly what the change agents are and their power. 3. Explain the potential impact they will have on aspects of the company’s marketing using a future’s wheel, https://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/futures-wheel.htm, e.g., people, jobs, sales techniques, consumer response, which of these is most likely and when. 4. Suggest implications for what the company should do to its organizations, processes or people to see the change as opportunity or protect itself from the threat. 5. Conclusion, which other companies might also be affected? 6. References. 7. Appendices.

Important.  Information regarding Group Project Problems and Group Project Presentations is to be found in the "Additional information for course members"  so please read this section as well.

Prerequisites for participation and waiting lists

Prerequisites are; Introduction to Marketing and Consumer Behaviour courses.

Recommended previous knowledge and skills

No previous skills of knowledge is required.

Availability of lecturer(s)

By arrangement during the course timetable.

The lecturer will be available between and after classes on teaching days. All other enquiries should be submitted via email.

 

Cass Business School, City University, 106 BunhillRow, London, EC1Y 8TZ,

Website:http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/faculty/v.mitchell/

Other

Required Materials

The slides and some readings will be available on the learn@wu platform at the beginning of the course. In addition, you can look at:

The Routledge Companion to the Future of Marketing (Routledge Companions in Business, Management and Accounting) (2014)

by Luiz Moutinho (Editor), Enrique Bigné, Ajay K. Manrai

Other useful readings are in the reference list.

http://www.futurefoundation.org/useful-links/

Unit details
Unit Date Contents
1 Session 1 - am

Introduction, course work and group and pair allocation,Belbin team roles.

Environmental Scanning. Organismic metaphor. Globalbusiness trends and forecasts. http://www.businessinsider.com/global-20-trends-defining-the-world-2015-5

https://www.atkearney.com/gbpc/detail/-/asset_publisher/0cePdOWatojD/content/top-12-global-trends-to-watch-in-2016/10192

http://www.globaltrends.com/

http://www.globaltrends.com/

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/12/10-trends-to-watch-in-2016/

http://www.globalfuturist.com/about-igf/top-ten-trends.html

2 Session 1 - pm

Individual differences

that help us cope with the future, e.g., tolerance forambiguity, creative mindsets and seeing the world as children, locus of control, time orientations, risk taking propensity and uncertainty avoidance, fearof critical parents, PAC model, open mindedness.

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20140612-the-best-way-to-see-the-future

Self-analysis exercises.
3 Session 2 - am

Types of future forecasting techniques. Futurecastlab.

Delphi, Judgemental Forecasting, Test and Learn, CrossImpact analysis,

http://designresearchtechniques.com/casestudies/cross-impact-analysis-as-a-research-pattern/

Future’s Wheel, Scenario Planning. http://www.forbes.com/sites/stratfor/2015/01/08/scenario-planning-and-strategic-forecasting/2/#30187f9028a1

Prediction markets and wisdom of crowds. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20161215-why-bees-could-be-the-secret-to-superhuman-intelligence

Unusual methods of predicting the future; http://www.smashinglists.com/10-traditional-ways-to-see-the-future/

4 Session 2 - pm

The future of marketing activities

Programmatic, individual pricing, segments of one, facial recognition, drones, retailing personalisation, burberry store of the future, real-time marketing, intelligence shop windows, drinkable ads, Ad blockers, the internet of things, self-driving cars, product placement,

AI https://www.ama.org/publications/MarketingNews/Pages/past-present-future-ai-marketing.aspx


5 Session 3 - am

How is consumer behaviour changing?

http://www.trendreports.com/

Apply a trend exercise. http://trendwatching.com/trends/5-trends-for-2017/


6 Session 3 - pm

Workshop on your projects. 10mins per group. Pecha Kucha Presentations.

7 Session 4 - am

The Future of organisations

Ad agencies https://therisetothetop.com/davids-blog/5-predictions-future-marketing-pr-advertising-agencies/

The Ultimate Marketing Machine.

Chief Value Officer.

Future soulful organisations. PANDAS.

Jobs that don’t exist yet. http://www.futuristspeaker.com/business-trends/162-future-jobs-preparing-for-jobs-that-dont-yet-exist/

Jobs of the Future exercise.


8 Session 4 - pm

Student final presentations. Course debrief and evaluations. The secret of happiness.

Last edited: 2017-05-17



Back