no alternative

We will look at different conceptions of “confirmation” in the 20th century and the various obstacles, which arise, if principles such as “verifiability” and “falsifiability” are to be applied. We will read and discuss Rudolf Carnap's account of a „prognosis“, as singular sentence inferred from a hypothesis (which is rule-like), as well as Karl Popper and Imre Lakatos' criticism of "naive ideas of  falsification"; i.e. the infamous problem of „the empirical basis“. A brief overview of 21st century accounts in the philosophy of science will be provided, too: van Fraassen‘s „constructive empiricism“ and accounts in the tradition of Lipton‘s „instrumentalism“. 

We will begin with Logical Empiricists’ understanding of  "Logical Reduction", move on to Carnap's writings about causes, laws and counterfactuals. As another 20th century account of confirmation theory, we will discuss Popper's "Logic of Scientific Discovery", and Lakatos’ and Kuhn's criticism of it. Before we begin our „applied part“, we will look into J.St. Mill’s understanding of „cause“ , Davidson on „necessary and sufficient conditions“, and D. Lewis’ account of counterfactuals (via modal logic = „possible worlds“).

The second part of this course will consist in "applied philosophy of science".  „How are ‚cause‘, ‚laws‘, ‚explanation’, ‚prognosis‘, ‚confirmation‘“ understood in the special sciences?“ — will be our guiding questions here. 

Participants of this course are supposed to get familiar with the nature of scientific knowledge; at the end of this course one ought to be able to analyse and evaluate approaches in confirmation theory and more recent approaches in the philosophy of science as „constructive empiricism“ and „instrumentalism“. Students will also acquire knowledge of how to apply these methodological principles. 

This course will take place as Distance Learning Course: online attendance is required for the last session three “application” sessions in November and certainly for the MC test. Online attendance is highly recommended for the very first sessions. 

The course is a PI course, which means that continuous assessment of student performance is carried out. Students will answer Clicker and/or checkbox surveys and show further active participation (e.g. through presentations and participating in discussions). The online “presence” of students will be checked through the activities of the students.

The course will take place as Distance Learning course in which a self study phase is first and and an online presence phase follows.

The course starts with an online presence lecture (course information). In the following sessions, students will get input on theory (Carnap, Neurath, Popper, Lakatos, van Fraassen, Lipton, Mill, Davidson, Lewis) via texts and slides, while the presence online phase in the last two sessions  is devoted to the application of these methodological considerations. Assignments for the online phases will be explained and discussed in the first session.

During the part A, students will have to turn in assignments and will receive e-mails reminding them of the assignments. Based on the theory input which is available as slide presentation with audio comment on MyLEARN, they study texts as bases of application and analysis. Multiple Choice (MC) tests serve as self-assessment and help deepening and structuring the learning experience. For the MC tests related to confirmation theory students will receive automated feedback. Written, personal feedback from the lecturer may be provided for open assignments. Students can discuss the outcomes of the assignments with supervisors in a forum on MyLEARN. Experiences from the online phases will be taken up in the presence lectures before the next theoretical topic is started.

As a collaborative product of the course, students will work on a glossary of philosophical terms (“logical reduction to observation sentences”, “eliminative inference”, “evidence”, „empirical content“, „counterfactuals“ etc.) .

In part B, we will discuss different conceptions of scientific investigations (the “material” will be 20th century theories in economics that have an explicit connection to Logical Empiricism, Critical Rationalism and Instrumentalism - such as the mentioned above) are foreseen for the presence units. Communication in the course will be via the synchronous three sessions before the final MC test and during „office hours“ + MyLEARN forum, e-mail.

Assessment Criteria:

1. MC test (has to be positive for a positive grade for the whole course)
2. Assignments Open questions ("question to be considered")  (in groups) 
3. Glossary (in groups)
4. Short discussion paper 

 Points in total 200 :

Excellent (1): 187 - 200 points, 185,5, 186, 186,5 in between 1-2
Good (2): 160 - 185 points, 158,5, 159, 159,5 in between 2-3
Satisfactory (3): 120 - 158 points
Sufficient (4): 80 - 119 points
Fail (5): 0 - 79 points

Three Assignments in Groups of 3 (not graded in 1 -5)  : max 60 points 

One Glossary Entry in Groups of 3  (not graded in 1 - 5): 20 points

One individual short paper: max 60 points

MC Test: max 60 points

MC Test:

Excellent (1): 55 - 60 points
Good (2): 48 - 55 points
Satisfactory (3): 35 -  48 points
Sufficient (4): 22 - 35 points
Fail (5): <22

LV "Logic and methodology of social sciences"

ao.Univ.Prof.Dr. Gabriele M. Mras
Building D4, 3rd floor, room number D4.3.020
Tel.: 01-31336-4257
Email: gabriele.mras@wu.ac.at

Administration: Bettina Gerdenich
Tel.: 01-31336-4166
Email: bettina.gerdenich@wu.ac.at

Assistant: Maximilian Margreiter
Email: maximilian.margreiter@wu.ac.at

Some more information concerning LearnWU: 

a. the text in "Confirmation-Theory Summary" and will cover  the part of this course on confirmation theory b. the “lecture slides” in addition the part of John Stuart Mill. c. in “assignments” ( “assignment 1” ... ) you will find a number of open questions to be answered weekly. Please upload your answers as an extra file in “Assignments/Aufgaben”. Deadline? See "assignment 1" /"Aufgaben", c. in “paper topics” you will find the paper topics for the last two sessions before the MC test. Please upload your paper in “Dateiablage” (When? The latest : 1 day before the discussion/presentation).  d. Attention: Inform me/us in “Foren” about the paper topic you have chosen:  Name – Text – Date (two weeks after course-beginning the latest).

The MC/SC test will take place at the very last session of this course via LEARN in the course: 2160 Course I - Philosophy: Logic and Ethics.  

Duration: 1 hour, 60 questions, the questions will be MC and SC questions.

The „examination statement“ will be activated 30 minutes before the start of the exam. You will be asked to read it and you have to confirm it. 

In case of internet issues during the exam, please send us an email with the subject “interruption” or „error”. PLEASE be aware that you have to document the problem in question. Tel.Nr. 01-313364257 (I am present during the exam, i.e. also reachable). Otherwise: gabriele.mras@wu.ac.at

ATTENTION: The final exam has to be positive for the grade of the whole course to be positive. In the case of an unexplained absence it will not (!) only be graded as having received 0 points!